BItcoin News – Bitcoin Price Predictions Through Technical Analysis: A Bit Like Palm Reading but Not Quite as Accurate | Inside Bitcoins | Bitcoin news | Price | Bitcoin Conferences
NEW YORK (InsideBitcoins) — Bitcoin believers love to chew on price predictions. There will always be a question from the crowd at any conference, “Where do you see the price going in the next 12 months?” The Reddit board is full of exclamation points and declarations of “To the moon!!!” But what has to be the most entertaining – and the perhaps the biggest waste of time, is technical analysis of the digital currency’s price pattern.
Of course, that’s just my opinion.
December 22, 2014. Just another day.
OpinionRecently, one chartist boldly proclaimed that December 22, 2014 would usher in a huge move in the price of bitcoin.
Jim Fredrickson, a commodity and forex trader, believed there was looming news of consequence – events hinted to in the patterns of his technical analysis — that would trigger a huge bitcoin bull market. There was none. But yes, early that morning BTC began rapidly climbing upward. And for a few hours I thought, “Could this be?” However, reality returned and bitcoin stumbled up and down through the day as usual, continuing its recent pattern of range-bound roaming.
Predictably, Fredrickson has since removed his date-specific December 22nd forecast from the post at CryptoCoinsNews.com.
“Massive orgasmic moments”
Undaunted, Fredrickson claims nevertheless that “those who have been trading with me these last few weeks are up almost $100/BTC.” Inside Bitcoins contacted Fredrickson to obtain his comments for this article but received no response by the time of publication. But he has given many clues to his trading philosophy.
“In the ocean coral reefs there is a single hour of a single day of the year when just about EVERYTHING spawns,” Fredrickson wrote in a recent comment. “It’s like a massive orgasmic moment for everything in the reef. Talk about esoteric… How is such coordination possible? Huge flocks of birds turn at the exact same instant to fly in the exact same direction, as do large schools of fish. Again, talk about esoteric… For reasons I can only speculate about, and not here, millions of traders and investors likewise change their market opinions at the same time. Even if we never know ‘why,’ if we can get a good idea of ‘when,’ we can reverse our genealogical futures. Our parents may have worked in coal mines, but our grandchildren can sip champagne on a yacht.”
While all of that may be true – I don’t know about that genealogical thing but I do believe the universe is indeed woven by a cosmic thread – however, buying and selling an investment based on charts, especially in such a thinly-traded market as bitcoin, mystifies me. Particularly when technical analysts can examine the exact same price history, and come to polar opposite conclusions.
Professional trader or palm reader?
PalmReaderTone Vays is another bitcoin price technician. Writing for CoinTelegraph.com, he’s taken the other side of the trade: he’s bearish.
“As for one of us being right and the other wrong, it does not invalidate the work,” Vays told Inside Bitcoins. “We use completely different methods of technical analysis since it is a very wide field.”
“As for one of us being right and the other wrong, it does not invalidate the work.”
Oh, well now I understand. It’s like a palm reader. You both read the same palm but see different things. That makes perfect sense, said no one ever.
“Yes, two people can definitely look at a chart and see completely different projections and that is acceptable unless they are looking at the same technical indicators on that chart. Then it becomes bad,” Vays says.
But Tone Vays believes Fredrickson may be trying too hard.
“He is attempting to predict both time and direction and even the size of the move. I don’t know why anyone would put themselves in that position because there is almost zero chance he will be right. If he is, I will read him religiously.”
Well, he wasn’t so you don’t have to change your reading habits.
Riding the Elliot Wave
And so technical analysts pitch their own little camps, based strictly on their methodology. Needless to say, Vays is not a fan of Fredrickson’s charts.
“I have no problem admitting that a signal did not work out and some money was lost because nothing always works as you expect.”
“He, just like CCN’s other analyst Vance (or something like that), both use a method called Elliot Waves for their primary means of predicting the future. I for one really do not like it,” he says. “Yes, it will work sometimes, but the main reason why I do not like it is that it constantly re-evaluates what happened in the past and interprets the past differently. So readers get the illusion that it is correct more often than it isn’t. I have no problem admitting that a signal did not work out and some money was lost because nothing always works as you expect.”
And while Fredrickson believes bitcoin won’t drop below $304 – and thinks “a minimum of $640 would be a reasonable figure” in the coming year, Vays expects the price to “fall back to $300 and most likely hit our $290 target before the start of the New Year.”
Again the clock is ticking on another bold prediction. Traders — as opposed to long-term buy-and-hold investors – will have to choose the chartist they think has the money making mojo.
Or perhaps better yet, go see a palm reader.